2017 Keepers
Introduction Good Morning everyone. Today I have a brief keeper writeup for you all. I was up at 5am starting work on this because I was so excited (or still jetlagged from my trip). I’m sorry about the mixup with the dates. That one is on me. Next year we will reassess keeper rules. Let’s see how this plays out first. I audibly gasped with a few choices made for this keeper selection, so despite my intentions to just post the list and move on, I decided to include a little blurb about my thoughts regarding each team’s selections (or lack thereof). Starting from the bottom and moving our way up. Draft Pick = Pick sacrificed for the player ADP = Average Draft Position Value = The difference between Draft Pick and ADP Momma Two obvious picks for momma, but that’s only because they are of such good value. How will Ajayi perform with Cutler in at QB? That remains to be seen. How much did his yuge games in 2016 improve the total outlook on Ajayi? Hard to say. But he did improve and he has the talent to be a top-five back. Now that he has a target on him, let’s see how he responds. Pryor has been lighting it up in Washington, and the Redskins lost 217 targets to free agency this summer (the first time in NFL history a team has lost two 1000-yard WR’s in the same off-season). He will get the love from Cousins and could be a potential red-zone threat. Although this new guy Doctson might vulture TDs and we’ll see what the health situation of Jordan Reed is like as we progress into the new year. So Jared keeps two players from the mega-trade with Paddock 9. So far, his gamble on the future of the franchise pays off. Papa's Posse Powell is a versatile player who will get more and more attention as Forte’s body disintegrates. He can catch, and he has the power to blast through a defense. Powell will likely become the lead back here and we will soon see if his bursts of brilliance can be sustained throughout a 16-game season. Stafford has gotten better without Calvin Johnson. There, I said it. At only 12 picks above his ADP, not a ton of value. But if it take the pressure off of finding a QB, so be it. Pain Train Jordan Howard is fast, he’s powerful, and he loves contact. As a coach, you have to love Howard. As a fantasy player, you might want him to shy away from the big hit a little more often. Howard has proved himself very valuable to Chicago, and because of that he should get a lot of work. But the Bears are a mess, he hasn’t been around long enough to play the “consistently good” card, and his love for contact could land him on the IR. Even though Adams was a disappointment in 2015, he might have finally turned the corner in 2016. He has matured as a player and could move into Jordy Nelson’s spot as the top receiver once Jordy’s days with A-Rod are over. Adams is a good choice not just for this year, but perhaps the next few years. Sweet Dee What the fuck, man? What are you doing? Blink twice if someone is holding you hostage and demanding you take all Saints players. Is Nate bullying you? In all seriousness, this isn’t the worst decision and if you took it out of context (the context being Sweet Dee runs the All-Saints Offense) it might be a good pairing for Dee to build around. Drew Brees has been a top-6 fantasy passer every year he has played for the saints, and Willie Snead should see an increase in production now that Cooks is gone. An interesting fact with the Saints: From 2014-2016, no single Saint WR has finished the season with more than 19% of the target share. Brees spreads that ball like butter on toast. But Snead did see 17% of the targets last year… I don’t know how you justify keeping a player almost exactly at his average draft position, but if you really like a guy why not, right? Also, RIP to Jamaal Charles being taken in the first two rounds. He hung around there like four years longer than he should have. MVP Big into the Dereks. Yuge Derek fan. Henry saw an uptick in touches late in 2016 but Murray is the Titan’s guy until injury, trade, or release. Murray will likely double up Henry’s touches, and with Tennessee’s talented WR’s this could be the year Mariota really opens things up in the passing game. I’m personally not as high on Henry as some of you guys, but if anything happens to Murray he could turn into a top-ten guy in the blink of an eye. Carr has done nothing...except get better. He is becoming a more expensive pick, so to grab him at 11 is one of the best steals of the draft. His average draft position is 76 but in the LoC QBs tend to go a little earlier than their ADP. Carr and the Raiders are loaded and should produce well for MVP. Paddock 9 I have never met someone so fucking scared of his own shadow. Here I am thinking RIPDab was the ultimate guy who outplays himself, but P9 might take the cake. P9 refused to pull the trigger on DeMarco Murray because he is so afraid of Derrick Henry. In the end, he could be absolutely right. I’m not here to tell him he just ended his season. But, for fuck’s sake, that’s like me not eating breakfast because I’m so afraid I won’t be hungry for lunch. Man, just eat. Don’t worry about lunch. You’re hungry right now! I’m sure you’ll have plenty of room for your next meal. In the NFL, we are all whores to talent. In other words, the talented guys will get the rock. What else do you need to worry about? So P9 is our lone team starting fresh from last year. I’m struggling to find any upside to that mega-trade. Really, really struggling. GBM GBM unquestionably had the best stockpile of potential keepers. In addition to Crowell and Thomas, three QBs (Ryan, Cousins, and Mariota), Jamison Crowder, and Jordy Nelson were among a star-studded group of value. Thomas was the steal pick of the season. Even if he is a complete bust, to buy him in the same round teams use to draft their backup kicker is a no-brainer. And a bust he very well could be. With Willie Snead eating up targets in the slot, Thomas becomes WR1 for Drew Brees and should take the top off of defenses in 2017. But while Cook being gone increases Thomas’s targets, it also gains him more attention from the bad guys. Lucky for him, the Saints have the 4th-easiest passing schedule. Major OL upgrades and a vote of confidence from Hue Jackson makes Crowell an appealing choice this year. The X-Factor of this being a contract year doesn’t hurt, either. However, the Browns are the Browns and Crowell matched every breakout game with a dud in 2016. Will be interesting if he can be consistent, and a 250-300 touch season will certainly reveal that. RIPDab There is no surprise here. Dab has been high on Crab to the Tree basically his whole career. We also know how much Dab loves Coleman. Could we potentially see a play for Freeman in the draft for Dab? RIP is notorious for starting two talented RBs for the same squad (He started Cincinatti’s two RBs together more often than Cincinatti did). There is no question that Crabtree has chemistry with Carr, and he benefits from Amari Cooper drawing coverage. And he hasn’t missed a game since 2013, so we know he is reliable. Coleman isn’t that special of a player according to everyone except Nate. He’s TD and big play-dependent and he only saw 40% of snaps in 2016. The Falcons belong to the much more consistent Freeman and if Coleman can’t vulture touchdowns again this season his fantasy value will plummet. JarJar Stinks! I’m not going to sugarcoat this. I’ve been planning to nab Evans at 7 all off-season. I can basically Cuncel my season right now. Evans is a bonafide stud and arguably the fourth best WR in the league behind the Big-Three. He led the league in targets in 2016 and has two 12-TD seasons in three years as a pro. However, with Jackson and Howard added to Winston’s army he will surely see a drop in looks. And speaking of drops, the man needs to cut back on those in 2017. If he does, he could have another monster year. The Shotti Bunch Spit out my coffee and wasn’t even drinking any when I saw this move by Shotti. The perennial Glory Bowl team opts to go for two first-round RBs instead of taking the massive value pick with Tom Brady for a 7th. This puts the biggest QB free agent on the market for the draft while essentially granting Shotti three first round players. Despite the fact that Shotti employs a run-first offense, there is risk in taking both McCoy and Gordon...and where there is risk there is potential for massive reward. What are the chances both McCoy and Gordon continue their success in 2017? McCoy is running behind a top-10 OL and the Bills are looking like a runningback’s team. But can McCoy stay healthy? And what about these rumors of him being shopped to other teams? Gordon should be good for 300 or more touches in 2017 if he can also stay healthy, which has not always been the case throughout his brief career. And volume is this player’s biggest asset. Not as agile or strong as some of the other RBs going in the first and second, Gordon will have to continue developing as a pass catcher, improve upon his 3.7 yard-per-carry average, and hope to see 18 or more touches a game. Full List of Players Here is the complete list of players being kept: * Bilal Powell * Davante Adams * Derek Carr * Derrick Henry * Drew Brees * Isaiah Crowell * Jay Ajayi * Jordan Howard * LeSean McCoy * Matthew Stafford * Melvin Gordon * Michael Crabtree * Michael Thomas * Mike Evans * Terrelle Pryor Sr. * Tevin Coleman * Willie Snead Conclusion Immediately after posting this I am approving keepers and I will have the draft finalized by 9am (8/23/17). This certainly changes things, as three first round picks are officially off the board. Add in Elliot with his six-game suspension, Jared heading to London, and the fact that the first two picks in the 2nd round are now used up by keepers, and picks 5-20 just got a whole lot more interesting. Draft is Sunday 8pm Rhode Island time.